Experts say that MPs who continue to endorse the controversial IR35 reform rules may lose public favour during the next, and possibly imminent, UK General Election.
An independent research firm Contractor Calculator has identified 85 MPs who could lose their seats if they don’t back contractors and oppose the Government’s plan to implement the private sector IR35 reform.
The private research firm has made the conclusion after analysing the data provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and also reviewing the previous survey carried out by the company to know about the public sentiment.
Public Sentiment Regarding Of-payroll Working Rules
Contractor Calculator analysed the figures released by ONS regarding the number of self-employed individuals in different constituencies in the UK. The voter turnout figure during the previous election was analysed to find out voters who are self-employed in different regions.
Furthermore, a previous survey of 2,000 contractors was reviewed that showed that nearly half of them would not vote for an MP if they favour reform rules. The percentage has been applied to the number of self-employed active voters to determine the total number of votes expected to be received by a party member. Through this, it was found that 85 MPs could lose their seats in the next election.
According to Dave Chaplin, the CEO of Contractor Calculator, parties that don’t secure sympathies of self-employed individuals risk losing the vote. The result will be particularly devastating for the Tories that comprise 39 out of the total 85 identified seats. In order to win the seats, parties have to act quickly and gain the trust of the self-employed individuals.
The research report had also found support for MPs who had signed the early day motion (EDM) against the 2019 Loan Charge.
Mr. Chaplain had stated that the Loan Charge is highly deleterious to contractors. The retrospective tax has driven many contractors to look for alternate schemes. MPs who have opposed the Loan Charge will fare far better during the next election.
The list of vulnerable MPs contains 24 Labour and 40 Conservative politicians. The self-employed vote will be a crucial and deciding factor in determining the winning party. Tory MPs will also find it hard to save their seats particularly due to the recent announcement of private sector IR35 reform and different draconian rules against contracting professionals.
Other parties that are in a precarious position due to not supporting contracting professionals include the Scottish National Party (SNP) and the Liberal Democrat.